We Ranked the House of the Dragon Characters By Their Exact Likelihood of Death

House of the Dragon, much like its predecessor, Game of Thrones, will very likely have a high death toll. There are massive dragons flying around, lords that certainly don’t have a lineage by the time of Thrones, and countless old guys just wasting away in powerful positions. The kingdom is sure to crumble any day now, you know. After all, it wouldn’t be much of a Targaryen civil war if everyone stayed alive.

For Fire & Blood readers, House of the Dragon‘s major deaths have already been spelled out, but don’t ruin the fun for everyone else! For all we know, there could be significant changes to the source material in store for us. The text has already been adapted to give characters richer backstories and stronger relationships. Who’s to say that a couple of untimely deaths couldn’t occur as well? Characters such as Laena Velaryon and House Strong came and went before we could even consider their chances of survival. Plus, a special shoutout is in order for Viserys. The dying king lasted eight episodes! Good for him, but sorry for anyone at home betting on him dying each and every week. And with that, let’s gamble on some more outcomes for Season One so far.

Princess Rhaenyra Targaryen: 5% Chance of Death

Princess Rhaenyra is not only our main character, but she’s also the direct ancestor to Daenerys Targaryen roughly 170 years later. She’s one of the two most important people going into the upcoming Targaryen civil war, so she’ll definitely survive a little while longer. Rhaenrya also seems like a character who is primed to make it to the endgame. We certainly hope to see her there.

Queen Alicent Hightower: 10% Chance of Death

As the Queen, Alicent’s children have a claim to the Iron Throne. She, too, was replaced by an older actress (Olivia Cooke) after a time skip, and will likely serve on the opposing side of Princess Rhaenyra when the succession conflict fully comes into play. However, there’s a slim chance that her character still doesn’t make it out of Season One alive. After all, it’s her children who have the claim, not her. Game of Thrones killed Sean Bean in Season One and I will never trust them again.

Daemon Targaryen: 15% Chance of Death

The reckless and chaotic Prince Daemon is too much of a problematic fan-favorite character to say his farewells in just the first season. But his smug personality doesn’t exactly give him a non-zero chance either. As much as I want to watch him run around Westeros causing havoc and mayhem, he may just take a step too far. Some could argue that he already has by killing his first wife and marrying his niece, but the character seems to be redeeming his past evils in every episode since.

Rhaenys Targaryen: 25% Chance of Death

Rhaenys is known as the “Queen Who Never Was,” which is the kind of title that doesn’t bode well for the idea of ever achieving the throne. Rhaenys is also Corlys’s wife, and with all the death recently surrounding House Velaryon, Rhaenys has found herself as one of the last living survivors. I previously had her up at around 60 percent, but the Targaryen princess has proved me wrong!

Ser Criston Cole: 30% Chance of Death

Ser Criston almost eliminated himself at the end of Episode Five after breaking his oath of celibacy. He was put in a dangerous spot following his sexy night with the princess, but the scorned lover has since shifted sides. Now part of Queen Alicent’s personal guard, he’s brokered himself some more security. Anything could still happen, but Ser Criston’s role in the series just keeps getting more interesting. There’s no way this tragic hero is going down in any normal way whatsoever.

Aegon Targaryen: 35% Chance of Death

Queen Alicent’s children are old enough to join the rankings by Episode Eight, especially since the potential heir to the throne isn’t just here to bully his cousins and masturbate out of his window. The succession conflict between Rhaenyra and Alicent doesn’t exist without the king’s first-born male, so his mere existence is needed—at least for now—to keep things moving.

Helaena Targaryen: 40% Chance of Death

Helaena may be Alicent’s oddest child among a group of misfit freaks. Aegon would be a Joffrey Baratheon-like monster of a King. Aemond would rule by force and fear. But Helaena? She’s often seen whispering little riddles to herself and playing with bugs. Who among these three kids could possibly be the smartest to survive the longest? Take your pick!

Baela and Rhaena Targaryen: 45% Chance of Death

Laena and Daemon’s daughters were a little bit safer back in Driftmark, but now they’ve been brought to Dragonstone to marry their cousins. The fall of House Velaryon makes me believe that we won’t be knocking enough any more members of that family for a little while, but the current pace is one Velaryon death per episode.

Jace and Luke Velaryon: 50% Chance of Death

Though seemingly just as important as Alicent’s children, Jace (Jacaerys) and Luke (Lucerys) have a more direct line to the throne. Technically, if something happens to Rhaenyra, then her children are next in line. This puts them in great danger. Jace and Luke have also received significantly less screen time than Alicent’s children. They’re both a little younger, but they were also recently engaged. If Thrones fans know anything about weddings in Westeros, it’s that they rarely go as planned.

Aemond Targaryen: 55% Chance of Death

Aemond definitely got some points by getting a cool eye patch, but a scratch on the eye doesn’t remove you from the dead pool entirely. He’s one of the creepiest characters on the show, and he’ll probably live long enough to at least have a rematch against the younger Velaryon kiddos. If a character gives you the chills, there’s a good chance they’re sticking around for a good while. Plus, he now owns the largest dragon in all of Westeros, Vhagar.

Otto Hightower: 60% Chance of Death

Certain characters like Rhaenyra and Queen Alicent seem pretty damn important to the events of House of the Dragon. However, Alicent’s father, Otto Hightower, was playing the game of thrones a little too on the nose. He was constantly in the King’s ear about protecting the line of succession to his grandson, even pushing his young daughter to marry the king—which was a really gross political move. Otto is calculated and manipulative. However, the former Hand of the King was given a chance to make his grand return. If he’s got more scheming to do, he’s bought himself some more time as well!

Corlys Velaryon: 70% Chance of Death

Don’t get me wrong, Corlys seems very cool. Other than that one time he tried to wed his 12-year-old daughter to the king, the idea of a sea captain who owns the world’s largest navy is very awesome. If Corlys could get another spinoff series of his own, his time on this prequel show may be cut short. The fall of House Velaryon must also come at some time during the civil war, especially since not a single Velaryon seems to make it out alive by the time of Game of Thrones. In Episode Eight, he was reported missing for six years (!) because some pirates ambushed his ship and slit his throat. Though recovering, the maester at Driftmark informed his wife that he has since come down with a fever as well. It’s not looking good for Corlys.

Larys Strong: 80% Chance of Death

This little weaselly schemer just killed his father and brother. There isn’t a House of the Dragon viewer who doesn’t want to see him dead. Sadly, this means that he’ll probably be around for a while. Like Thrones‘s Littlefinger, manipulating, evil men tend to do pretty well for themselves in Westeros. Eventually, they get their just desserts, but teetering on maybe getting killed every episode is actually not a bad way to survive in King’s Landing.