Topline
Researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine on Saturday projected that the omicron variant of coronavirus could raise the death toll from Covid-19 in England between 25,000 and 75,000 over the next five months if the government doesn’t take more steps to slow the spread of the virus.
Key Facts
Researchers say they used new data on how the omicron variant may evade antibody and immune responses in their projections.
Their best-case scenario — in which boosters are highly effective at combating omicron and the variant has a low chance of avoiding an immune response — is for 175,000 Covid-19 hospitalizations and 24,700 deaths between December and April.
If the omicron variant proves to be able to mutate to avoid an immune response and boosters aren’t effective at battling the variant, the researchers estimate there will be 492,000 Covid-19 hospitalizations, double England’s peak in January, and 74,800 deaths during the same time period.
According to the researchers, both scenarios assume stronger measures aren’t enacted than the United Kingdom’s current “Plan B” policy, which British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced this week, which requires people to show proof of Covid-19 vaccination or a negative test to enter nightclubs or large events, and requires wearing masks in theaters and other indoor venues.
The study has not yet been peer-reviewed.
Crucial Quote
“In our most optimistic scenario, the impact of Omicron in the early part of 2022 would be reduced with mild control measures such as working from home,” wrote Dr Rosanna Barnard, a scientist who co-led the research. “However, our most pessimistic scenario suggests that we may have to endure more stringent restrictions to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed. Mask-wearing, social distancing and booster jabs are vital, but may not be enough.”
Key Background
The United Kingdom was one of the first countries that identified cases of the omicron variant days after the World Health Organization announced the discovery of the variant, which was first spotted in South Africa. Johnson announced measures for travelers entering the U.K., requiring a PCR test two days after their arrival and requiring mask-wearing if entering shops. Omicron was identified by the WHO as a “variant of concern” due to its high number of mutations, though South African doctors have noted they have seen that the omicron variant has milder symptoms of Covid-19.
Further Reading
U.K. Advises People To Work From Home, Expands Mask Mandate Amid Omicron Wave (Forbes)
U.K. Ramps Up Covid Measures After 2 Omicron Cases Identified (Forbes)
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