This is around the time fantasy football owners start really getting frustrated (or excited) about certain players. You can write off one or even two weeks as a “small sample,” but for some reason, we often see what happens in the first three games as a trend that will continue the rest of the year. Of course, that’s not true, but if you’re 0-3 or 1-2, then you’re definitely scouring the waiver wire or searching for a potential trade partner. It’s possible your season could get back on track with the players you have, but finding some buy-low, sell-high trade targets could be key to your revival. As always, FantasyPros is here to help with tips and trade advice in their Week 4 Stock Watch that includes Tyreek Hill, Joe Mixon, Adam Thielen, Trey Sermon, Allen Robinson, and Brandon Aiyuk, among others.
Of course, there’s another side to that coin. If you’re 2-1 or 3-0 and feeling great about your team, then you’re looking to strengthen your starters and shore up some holes that could arise during the bye weeks. It’s probably too early in the season to really be worrying up things like that — plenty of injuries, reduced roles, and disappointing performances are yet to come — but if you have a surplus of players off to hot starts, now might be the time to move them for some more established producers and/or players at a position of higher need. You’re in the position of strength, though, so don’t sell a player short just to make a deal.
MORE FROM FANTASY PROS: Trade analyzer
It’s always important to remember that trade values can change quickly in fantasy football, so don’t get too locked in on a specific target. Change your thinking as the trends change, but don’t be afraid to strike if you have a good offer on the table, even this early in the season. — Matt Lutovsky
Week 4 Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Buy-low trade candidates
Tyreek Hill (WR – KC)
Hill was held under 60 receiving yards and without a touchdown for the second straight game in Week 3. It’s unlikely that his owners would actually be willing to trade him for a discount, but Hill’s season-long projections haven’t changed. Eruption games are coming for him.
Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
Let’s start with the negative. Mixon’s target share has decreased from 15.4 percent in Week 1 to 6.9 percent in Week 2 to 5.4 percent in Week 3. That isn’t what fantasy owners want to see, but the Bengals continue to utilize Mixon as a bell-cow running back, and he went over 20 touches for the third straight game this past Sunday. Cincinnati draws the Jaguars, Packers, and Lions in the next three weeks. Fantasy football is a volume-driven game. Mixon is seeing volume, and the upcoming matchups are strong. Don’t overthink this one.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
The sophomore wideout put up a 4-37-1 line in Week 3 against the Packers, and there are some signs that he might finally be free from Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse. Per PFF, Aiyuk ran more routes in Week 3 (44) than Weeks 1 and 2 combined (35). We know he’s talented. Once some additional opportunity comes his way, Aiyuk’s fantasy value should see a steady rise.
For more buy-low targets from Fantasy Pros, including Odell Beckham Jr. and Stefon Diggs, click here.
Week 4 Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Sell-high trade candidates
Adam Thielen (WR – MIN)
Fantasy football analysts have been screaming “regression” when it comes to Thielen for a while now. The reason is that he continues to overperform his expected number of touchdowns based on the yardage he compiles. Entering Week 4, the 31-year-old receiver has scored a whopping 18 times in his past 18 games. Eventually, he’ll stop finding the end zone this consistently. Now feels like a good time to sell high on Thielen.
For more sell-high targets from Fantasy Pros, including Joe Burrow and Robert Tonyan, click here.
Week 4 Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Players to hold
Allen Robinson (WR – CHI)
Entering Week 4, Robison has yet to finish higher than the WR49 in weekly fantasy scoring. The good news is things can’t get much worse. Robinson owners need Justin Fields to begin developing in a hurry and for his 25.3-percent target share to hold steady or possibly even rise. Still, now isn’t the time to sell low.
Trey Sermon (RB – SF)
Sermon salvaged his Week 3 fantasy performance with a rushing score, but he didn’t really do much to separate himself from Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) once he returns. Game script also didn’t work in his favor against the Packers on Sunday night, as the 49ers quickly fell down 10-0. Sermon remains a high-upside bench stash for now, but he’s not necessarily someone we can confidently start just yet.
For more hold targets from Fantasy Pros, including Jaylen Waddle, click here.